XXI Olympic Winter Games Figure Skating Dance Preview

The fact that we've finally come to the Olympics is unbelievable! It's what so many athletes have worked so hard far! Over the next four days I'm going to break down who to watch in Vancouver beginning today with Ice Dance.

The Ice Dance competition will be the first time we get to see all the World's best in one competition this season. Odd viral infections, bum knees, newborn babies, and even teeth have kept the best from going head-to-head this season but it all changes in Vancouver. Who are the six teams I think we need to watch?

Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto (USA) - The 2006 Olympic Silver Medalists had a great Grand Prix season with two wins at Samsung Anycall Cup of China and Cancer.Net Skate America but hit a road bump when they had to withdraw from the Grand Prix Final due to a tooth infection from Tanith. The team hit another hurdle when they were unable to win back their U.S. Title in Spokane, settling for Silver. Even still, they have tons of experience to bank on including the fact they've managed Olympic Pressure before. Despite the loss at Nationals it was an extremely close race and I suspect they'll be right in the thick of it in Vancouver.

Meryl Davis and Charlie White (USA) - They enter these Olympics as the team to beat. Two wins on the Grand Prix at Rostelecom Cup and NHK Trophy, a win at the Grand Prix Final (becoming the first American team to win that event), and a win at Nationals has put the target squarely on their backs. With success comes expectations and pressure and this team doesn't have the base of experience to fall back on that many of the others have but they seem to be in a groove. At U.S. Nationals they skated one of the best Free Dances I've ever seen and had the audience out of their seats instantly. If they can hold up under pressure they may find themselves with some hardware around their neck...the bling bling kind.

Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder (FRA) - The 2008 World Champs have been out of competition for over a year now due in large part to Isabelle's pregnancy. They enter the Olympics as the complete wildcard...nobody knows how they will perform, if they are prepared, how their programs will stack? They stated they were ready to compete at the European Championships but the French Skating Federation opted to not send them to Tallinn wanting to keep their programs a "secret." It will be interesting to see how this team re-enters the mix. I'm still convinced they are a Gold Medal threat...they have so much experience that cannot be ignored. They have been skating together the longest of anyone in the competition...20 years! 16th in Salt Lake City, 4th in Torino, Gold in Vancouver?

Oksana Domnina and Maxim Shabalin (RUS) - The Olympics haven't yet begun and already there is controversy. Domnina and Shabalin have been all over the skating headlines due to their controversial Original Dance they are set to compete in Vancouver. People are already speculating as to what the fall out would be should the reigning World Champs win Gold in Vancouver with what many are calling a highly offensive dance. Everyone will be watching to see if they've made the modifications that Aboriginal Leaders have asked them to make. Many in the skating world fear this controversy will be the black cloud that hangs over the figure skating event in Vancouver. To be sure, it will be an interesting game of 'Public Relations Chess' to watch. Having won at Europeans, they enter this competition as the top seeded Europeans.

Federica Faiella and Massimo Scali (ITA) - I thought this team was toast after a disappointing finish at World's last season. Despite a bumpy beginning to this season which included some illness and minor injuries, this team is surging at just the right time. While only second overall at Europeans, they did manage to beat Domnina and Shabalin in both the Original Dance and Free Dance at the competition. This team has an amazing ability to tell stories, something they do brilliantly in their programs this season. This veteran team which, like Delobel and Schoenfelder, are entering their 3rd Olympics and are looking to land on the podium this time.

Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir (CAN) - They'll have the crowd behind them and they have looked great this season. They traded season best scores back and forth on the Grand Prix with Davis and White and came desperately close to winning the Grand Prix Final, less than two points behind Davis and White. They recently gave a performance at Canadian Nationals that was equally impressive to Davis and White's U.S. Nationals performance. I'm not certain if having the crowd on their side will be helpful or put un-nerving pressure on them. I suspect this team will do very well here in Vancouver and I wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if they managed to nab the Gold right at home.

I promise you, Ice Dance will be one of the (if not the most) closest competitions in Figure Skating at the Olympics. It promises to be exciting. There is quite a cast of second string players that may factor in if teams at the top make critical errors. Don't forget to keep an eye on: Pechalat and Bourzat, Khoklova and Novitski, Cappellinni and Lanotte, Zaretski and Zaretski, Kerr and Kerr, and Crone and Poirier.

European Championships Preview (Dance)

The last of my European Championship Previews before the event kicks off next Monday, the Dance event in Tallinn is quite unusual this season. The teams that we might consider the favorites have either not competed at all this season or are making some slight comebacks from injury and such. This aura of uncertainty makes me believe this title is possibly up for grabs. The teams to watch? I'm keep an eye on:

Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder - This team has competed since winning the 2008 Grand Prix Final. A shoulder injury kept them out of last season's Europeans and Worlds and Isabelle's pregnancy kept them out of this season's Grand Prix. It's is still unclear if the 2008 World Champs will compete in Tallinn. FFSG (French Skating Federation) is weighing the pros and cons of having them compete there with an announcement expected anytime. I think anytime you can run your programs and get feedback pre-Olympics it's a good thing (but I'm not the one on the ice). They've said they are ready to compete no matter FFSG's decision so we may be seeing them next week.

Nathalie Pechalat and Fabian Bourzat - In Delobel and Schoenfelder's competitive absence this other top French team has been slowly moving up the ranks. They won the bronze at the recent Grand Prix Final and look to be possible Gold contenders in Tallinn. Their program, however, has looked less put together each time I've seen it this season. Let's hope the break between Tokyo and Tallinn has given them some time to polish things up. If Delobel and Schoenfelder are rusty/don't compete and Domnina and Shabalin aren't put back together yet...this is the team to beat.

Alexandra Zaretski and Roman Zaretski - This team was just 5th at Samsung Anycall Cup of China but then shocked me at Skate America taking the bronze medal (actual was second in the free skate ahead of Cappellini and Lanotte). They also won the recent Golden Spin of Zagreb competition. This team apparently is doing something right as far as the judges are concerned. This competition gives them the opportunity to move into the top ranks of ice dancers. They are exciting, have beautiful programs this season, and are perhaps coming together at the perfect time. On a side note, and maybe someone can answer this for me...why do Israeli skaters compete at European's and not Four Continents Cup? I'm pretty sure I didn't fail Geography and Israel is an Asian nation. I suppose the same question applies to Azerbaijan...

Oksana Domnina and Maxim Shabalin - This team is attempting to quick get it back together prior to the Olympics. They won Russian Nationals (although Khoklova and Novitski didn't compete) convincingly despite looking a hot mess. They looked a little better at a recent send-off show...a little. The reigning World Champs easily have the most unique OD set to Aboriginal music but I think it's going to take more than that to win this. If they somehow manage to show up in Tallinn in top form, well that would be a miracle! But if any team could pull it off I think it's them. This team may be helped along by the rust prevailing in the other teams, lack of consistent competing by other teams, and good ole Russian Ice Dancing luck!

Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte - One of only two teams competing in Tallinn that have done the full gambit of competition this season (two Grand Prix's, Grand Prix Final, Nationals) which may help them in the long run. They've had more time to put their programs in front of international judges and tweak them. After a surprisingly (surprisingly!) easy qualification into the Grand Prix Final, they struggled in Tokyo finishing 5th (actually was last in the free dance losing to Canadians Crone and Poirier). They also enter this event as the number two Italians, not the national champs. Still, this team can be exciting to watch and given the special circumstance of this competition they may find themselves in a race for the podium.

Sinead Kerr and John Kerr - The other team that has had a full plate this year, the British brother and sister duo seem forever stuck as the bridesmaids and never the brides. At the Grand Prix Final, they didn't look as sharp as they had in the past. This team is always one of the crowd favorites and it's hard not to like them this season with a Linkin Park Free Dance but this team needs to make a big move here to push through to the top. The best thing about this team is the passion and abandon they skate with when they are 'in the zone.' I say at Europeans hold nothing back and just go for it. Throw caution to the wind and let it all hang out...they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Jana Khoklova and Sergei Novitski - After a promising start to their Grand Prix Season in Beijing (they won the silver) they came undone a bit at Cancer.Net Skate America, fell off the podium, and failed to make the Grand Prix Final. Then they actually made the final when Belbin and Agosto withdrew (I will let the tooth saga go...) but decided not to compete. They didn't compete at Russian Nationals either due to a knee injury for Sergei. This team heads to Tallinn a little beat up and needs a turnaround performance to get themselves back in the judges good grace. Their programs are...um...unique? Russian to the core I'd say. Their best asset is their 'in your face wow factor.' They have to use it or I think they will not be happy with their result. The defending champions may have a rough time defending here.

Federica Faiella and Massimo Scali - This team has yet to get their footing under them this season. A shaky start at Samsung Anycall Cup of China where they were just third, they were then forced to withdraw from HomeSense Skate Canada when Federica took ill. They do enter European's having won Italian Nationals and can hopefully get back on track. They won the silver at last season's European's and are hoping to at least match that performance here. They have a great program this season that tells a great story. This team is great at telling stories on the ice. Again, no team looks like clear front runners so anything is possible...perhaps a step higher up the podium this season?

UPDATE: Delobel and Schoenfelder have withdrawn from Europeans

Results Round-Up

As I discussed last week, this past weekend was a bit of a National's Marathon for a good deal of Europe. Here is some of the notable results and happenings...

Italy: Faiella and Scali won with Cappellini and Lanotte right behind. National scores tend to be inflated but Federica and Massimo's scores where right in there with the best in the world; about on par with what Belbin and Agosto have produced. Contesti skated to an easy victory. The big news is Carolina Kostner was unable to beat Valentina Marchei for the title. The plot thickens as Kostner's L.A. meltdown last season only provided one Olympic berth for Italy...??? Both ladies will be at European's...this might get scrappy!

Germany: Stefan Lindemann won as expected but he surprisingly had to come from behind to do it, third after the short he had to sweat it out against Peter Liebers. Both will compete at the European Championships. Savchenko and Szolkowy opted to not compete in Mannheim.

Sweden: Viktoria won the battle of the Helgesson's defeating Joshi. Kristoffer Berntsson bested Adrain Schulteiss in the men's division. That was hotly contested as Sweden only gets to send one guy to Vancouver. Both will be at the European Championships.

Czech Republic/Slovakia: Michal Brezina continued his breakout senior season with a win over Tomas Verner. Brezina bested Verner by just over 20 points.

Finland: The ladies competition unfolded as most predicted with Laura Lepisto slipping in for the win with Korpi behind in second. Pöykiö could only manage the bronze. All three women will compete at the European Championships.

France: Ice Dance newbies Carron and Jones won their first French National Title. However, neither reigning National Champs Pechalat and Bourzat or 2008 World Champs Delobel and Schoenfelder competed. Only two Olympic berths open for France in Ice Dance. James and Bonheur defeated Canac and Coia for the Pairs title. The French men continue to be wildly unpredictable this season. Joubert opted to not compete. Florent Amodio came out on top managing to get past Yannick Ponsero. Preaubert who looked great at Skate Canada only managed the bronze. Two Olympic berths open for the men and it's still up in the air who besides Joubert will get in? Some are reporting that Amodio gets the ticket to Vancouver. Did the French Federation make that decision before European's?

Cake and Candles: Massimo Scali

Today is Massimo Scali's, 2009 European Silver Medalist and Italian Ice Dance Champion (with partenr Federica Faiella), Birthday!

It's the big 30!

Massimo, hanno un grande compleanno! Rendono la giornata migliore di sempre! (How was my Italian?)

Dark Horse

We all know who the big names and medal contenders are for the Olympics next February in Vancouver.  But there are some dark horses lurking out there that I think we should keep an eye on who might surprise us.  That surprise may come in the form of an unexpectedly high placement at the Olympics…it might come with an Olympic Medal attached!
 
Amongst the pairs, I don’t think we should forget about the Canadian duo of Duhamel and Buntin.  This team is powerful, exciting, dynamic…they’re all those words Skate Canada wants its athletes using to describe themselves!  I don’t think anyone has them pegged for a podium finish but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens.  I think we should continue to keep an eye on the Ukrainian team of Volosozhar and Morozov.  At times, they have a quiet consistency that serves them well.  Finally, whichever one of the young Russian teams makes it to the Olympics should be watched as well.
 
Among the ladies, watch out for Kiira Korpi who I think one of these days is going to shock us all.  The fight for the Olympic Team in Japan is fierce, but should Akiko Suzuki make the team I think she would also have to be considered a dark horse?  The young Russian, Alena Leonova, who loves an audience and has more energy than she knows what to do with it could really make a splash too (set herself up nicely for Sochi in the process!).  Of course, it’s like a complete mystery who will be on the U.S. Olympic Team, some U.S. skaters may be considered dark horses while others may be considered favorites…
 
Dance is a little less ‘dark horsey’ because it’s quite clear who the contenders are.  I would caution, however, everyone to keep an eye on Kerr and Kerr of Great Britain, Faiella and Scali as well as Cappellini and Lanotte both of Italy and Crone and Poirier of Canada.  Also, watch out for Chock and Zuerlein of the U.S.  The U.S. Dance fight for the podium will be fierce this season too!
 
Do we consider Evgeny Plushenko and Stephane Lambiel dark horses or favorites…I’m not sure?  Definite dark horses include Denis Ten of Kazakhstan (if you didn’t see his World’s Free…well…you should!).  He’s musical; one of those skaters that just knows how to hit every note in his music and pulls in great component scores.  He’s been fiddling with the quad and if he can hit it with a solid program, watch out.  Yannick Ponsero of France is an unusual skater, unique (like most French skaters) style, and also proved last season that he could possibly contend with the ‘big boys.’  The breakout story of last season, Samuel Contesti of Italy, could be a force if he can reduplicate what he did last season.  I’m still waiting for Sergei Voronov of Russia to put it all together; when he does he’ll be dangerous.  Another Frenchmen, also unique, Florent Amodio has an outside shot at making the French Olympic Team and could be interesting to watch.  A few guys from Canada (only one of which will most likely make the Olympic Team) could surprise.  Kevin Reynolds with his quad jumps, Vaughn Chipeur with that huge Triple Axel, and Jeremy Ten with his incredible speed could all surprise us as well.
 
Who do you think we should keep an eye on?

NHK Wrap-up

I know, I know...all my fellow figure skating bloggers are quicker on the draw on these but for me, Ice Network is like TiVo...I can watch it whenever I want and so I've had a bad habit of planning things on the weekend and watching the competition on Sunday/Monday.

But I've caught the action and I'm ready to give my take on things...

In Ice Dance I was so worried about Samuelson and Bates not making the podium, coming into the Free Dance in 4th. And then on the dance spin Evan lost his footing and plopped down to the ice and I was like, "Oh no...that does it." But a ray of hope as Russians Gorshkova and Butikov were less than stellar and actually dropped a couple of spots securing the Americans a place on the podium. I honestly thought that the Italians, Faiella and Scali would have an easy victory...not the case. After winning the compulsory dance, it was a bumpy road with the French team of Pechalat and Bourzat (who were exceedingly more polished here than I've ever seen them!) winning both the OD and the Free Dance. Luckily for the Italians, their lead all the way back from the CD held and they took the title (barely). That also means I 'barely' accurately predicted the podium!

UPDATE: Ooops! I looked at my predictions below...and I didn't get this one right. I actually had Samuelson and Bates pegged for silver...guess my limb broke!

Among the men, I was dissapointed that Stephen Carriere came undone and failed to either medal or make the Grand Prix Final. This is the second year in a row that NHK has been unkind to him. Stephen made Tomas Verner a very happy fellow! Takahiko Mura showed the depth of the Japanese team with a strong performance and a respectable 5th place showing. Patrick Chan is clearly the class of Canada now but Kevin Reynolds is proving to be quite the competitor as well. Not one, but two beautiful quads in his free skate to capture 4th place (I have to tell you...that is exactly why I pegged him for the bronze...maybe next time!). The bronze medal went to Yannick Ponsero who looked leaps and bounds more comfortable here than he did in Canada. He too opened with a gorgeous quad toe to get a strong program underway. The silver went to Johnny Weir who started very strong but then towards the end of the program he doubled a jump and singled another. Even still he had strong scores and continues to show his attitude change and his new approach to training continue to pay dividends. On a nit picky level, I'd like to see him not front load his free skate so much...and always try the quad. Johnny's jump technique is solid enough that he can almost always keep that jump on its feet. Nobunari Oda won the men's event with a solid free skate (he too threw a quad that was mostly successful). He, like Weir, also had some jump issues here and there but overall he looked very fit and he skated with tremendous speed. The response from the Japanese audience was overwhelming and at one point you could tell he was really trying to hold back some tears. For Oda it was mission accomplished as far as restoring some credibility.

The pairs event was rough. Dube and Davison didn't look themselves at all. About the only element, aside from the lifts, that went right was the triple twist. All of their jumping elements were flawed, they were slow across the ice, and they lacked the spark they usually have in their skating. I don't think this team has helped themselves this season by choosing such a rough cut of Carmen either...it just doesn't suit them. They got the bronze medal only because the all the other teams before them had rough skates as well (well...that...and the fact that even on a bad performance their skating skills were far superior to the teams that had skated prior to them). The bright spot on the evening was the Americans. Inoue and Baldwin, while not as technical as the other teams, did turn in a pretty good performance for the silver. After John fell on the opening triple toe (which despite the fall, I give him credit for rotating it. So often he just does a double and he has to get his head around doing the triple) went on to skate very well. They scaled back from the throw triple axel, opting for a double instead, but it was done well. Solid lifts, amazing side-by-side unison on the spins, and overall...not too shabby. A silver for them was a bit of redemption after their awful showing at Skate America. The winners were China's Pang and Tong. They too had some side-by-side issues but the throws were amazing and they breezed pass the field. I'm still not sure I like the program...I warm up to it about the time it switches from that bland tango music into Concerto de Aranjuez.

Last season, the Japanese ladies didn't fare well at all, with Nana Takeda barely pulling off a bronze. This season it was a clean sweep of the podium for the Japanese women. Poor Ashley Wagner after a promising start in the short got bit by the same bug that got her at Cup of China...wrong edge here, downgraded jump there, and lower than expected component scores and she again finishes just off the podium. In her defense, I just love this 'Spartacus' program and I think she's getting undermarked on the component side of things. Again, how Laura Lepisto can beat her continues to baffle me. Yukari Nakano pulled of a comeback performance to rally back to the bronze (and make the Grand Prix Final). After a clean skate, she was visibly emotional as scores of flowers, teddy bears, and other goodies rained down upon her as she took her bows. These Japanese ladies are under such stress from the press (rhymed!), especially when they compete at home, and it is a relief when they skate well. A lesser known Japanese lady whose actually been around for sometime took the silver. Akiko Suzuki, who actually won the Finlandia Trophy early this season, had a solid performance of her own, showed some flair, and was genuinely pleased with herself and I think a bit surprised when her result came up. But the show stopper was without a doubt Mao Asada who oblitereated the competition. She opened up with a gorgeous triple axel and then...decided to do a second in combination (a separate post is coming on this combo alone), ridiculous! She went on to land everything else she was planning with no wrong edge deductions and nearly all positive grades of execution across the board...this is not the Mao we saw in Paris...this is a Mao that can take on Yu-Na Kim. she was absolutely stunning.

So the Grand Prix Final is set. I'll do a separate post later to talk about that in greater detail. The competition in Korea is going to be fierce. If per chance you missed Mao's amazing performance, fret not...I have it here!