Grand Prix Crunch in Paris

As this season's final event, Trophy Eric Bompard will decide who is in for Beijing, and who is out. The last Grand Prix event is always interesting because I imagine skaters on the ice trying to make the final are perhaps as nervous as those watching at home hoping they've done enough to qualify.

Beginning with Ice Dance, three teams have sealed the deal as far as the Grand Prix Final goes: Americans Davis and White, Canadians Crone and Poirier, and Russians Bobrova and Soloviev. Competing in Paris with a shot at making the Grand Prix Final is Pechalat and Bourzat of France. Having won Cup of China they look to be in really good shape to make the final and are the CLEAR FAVORITES at this event. I think if they just stand on the ice and look good they win. Then it becomes a bit of a scramble. The dance field in France is the weakest thus far on the Grand Prix so it's somewhat unpredictable. American's Chock and Zuerlein are in the running for the Grand Prix Final after their bronze medal effort in Canada. Three more teams, with a win, could make the final in Paris: Riazanova and Tkachenko of Russia, Carron and Jones of France, and Huang and Zheng of China (a bit remarkable that we are still talking about a Chinese Dance team being in the running for the GPF...it's been one of those seasons!)...however it is a bit unlikely that any of these teams would win. Who is at home biting their finger-nails? With the best shot of any is Canadians Weaver and Poje who are on the better end of a tie-breaking situation and barring some very unusual results will likely qualify. Praying for miracles are Hungarians Hoffmann and Zavozin and Americans Shibutani and Shibutani.

The ladies competition has been so odd this season, I haven't known what to really make of it. Given that, 5 of the 6 spots for the Grand Prix Final have already been decided: Italy's Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando, Kanako Murakami, and Akiko Suzuki all of Japan, and American Rachael Flatt have all qualified. That means one spot is still open. Who can get after it? American Alissa Czisny has the best chance having won Gold at Canada. Should Alissa have big problems, and certain placements happen, three ladies are still in the running including Canada's Cynthia Phaneuf, American Mirai Nagasu, and Finland's Kiira Korpi. Needing a miracle to make the final is Japan's Haruka Imai. Even more interesting, mathematically Mao Asada of Japan and Mae Bernice Meite of France still have a shot...but they need more than a miracle...they need divine intervention. Not only would they have to win....but they also would need Nagasu, Korpi, Phanuef, and Czisny to finish TEB with little to no points (depending on the competitor). Not gonna happen. No real nail-biting at home...even though Ashley Wagner is on the bubble, she is unlikely to make the final...it would take one of those miracle scenarios.

In Pairs, four teams have sealed the deal for the final already. China's Pang and Tong, Canadians Moore-Towers and Moscovitch, Russians Iliushechkina and Maisuradze, and China's Sui and Han (the latter two teams on the good end of a tie-breaker). Only two teams competing in Paris have a shot at making the final. Germans Savcehnko and Szolkowy who won Skate America and Russia's Bazarova and Larionov who took silver in Japan. Those two teams should have no problem going 1-2 and nabbing the last two spots at the final. But...should disaster strike, mathematically Takahashi and Tran of Japan and Americans Yankowskas and Coughlin are still viable...it's a stretch though. Takahashi and Tran have a better shot if Bazarova and Larionov have troubles.

Finally the men...what a season so far! Four guys have secured spots in Beijing: Daisuke Takhashi of Japan, Patrick Chan of Canada, Tomas Verner of the Czech Republic, and Nobunari Oda of Japan. A whopping five men competing in Paris have a shot at making the final yet. With the best opportunity is Takahiko Kozuka of Japan. American Brandon Mroz has the next best shot after finishing right behind Takahiko in China. Trickier but still with a decent chance is Florent Amodio. And even more tricky but still possible is Brian Joubert and Kevin Reynolds. The REAL nail-biting is being done by Jeremy Abbott who is on the serious bubble! He still has a shot at the Grand Prix Final depending on how the guys finish in Paris...it'll be close. Poor Adam Rippon...after his hiccup at Skate America he has hardly any shot at all for the Grand Prix Final. This will be the crunchiest of all the numbers in Paris!

Fantasy picks...take a look below. I'm determined to move up the standings after the Dance event in Russia killed me! Am I crazy to go with Asada?

Bland Weekend in Moscow

In General, I was very BLAH about Rostelecom Cup this past weekend. Very little actually got my blood pumping. I felt the ladies competition was boring. Miki Ando skated a clean but safe program to win. Akiko skated a pretty program peppered with little errors for the silver, and Ashley Wagner nabbed the bronze after a better but still not amazing free. Half the dancers didn't even compete leaving a field of medalists nobody would have predicted. The men failed to excite with Tomas winning with his less than spectacular MJ Medley (The choreo Hugo...the choreo!). We learned that Chan is beatable, he just has to fall like 3 or more times. And Jeremy may have missed his shot at Beijing with just a bronze.

The only thing that DID excite me about Rostelecom Cup was Kavaguti and Smirnov's Free Skate. GUSH! It's a thing of beauty and they skated it brilliantly. Tamara Moskvina has really put something special together there. Not sure on the outfits (Sasha's in particular) but the skating gets an A+.

How did I do fantasy wise...don't ask. The Men's and Dance events killed me! But somehow I keep moving up the overall standings...156th overall...meh!

Later this week a Grand Prix Final Crunch pre Trophy Eric Bompard.

Also, bare with me...my work schedule has become haphazard so blogging and working has become...interesting. But...I'm still committed!

Skate America

The Grand Prix makes its annual stop in the U.S. this week. A quick rundown on who to watch (blogging on the quick!):

Men:
Nobunari Oda (JPN) - Silver Medal at Skate Canada

Adam Rippon (USA) - Bronze Medal at Skate Canada

Shawn Sawyer (CAN) - Strong components scores

Daisuke Takahashi (JPN) - Won NHK Trophy

Denis Ten (KAZ) - When on has few weaknesses

Kevin van der Perren (BEL) - Solid jumper (at times)

Pairs:
Denney and Barrett (USA) - Technical consistency

Moore-Towers and Moscovitch (CAN) - Silver Medal at Skate Canada

Savchenko and Szolkowy (GER) - Olympic Bronze medalists. Veteran competitors

Stolbova and Klimov (RUS) - Solid Russian basics equaling strong pair skills

Sui and Han (CHN) - Silver at Cup of China, has solid throw quad salchow

Ladies:
Rachael Flatt (USA) - Silver Medal at NHK Trophy

Carolina Kostner (ITA) - Gold Medal at NHK Trophy

Kanako Murakami (JPN) - Bronze Medal at NHK Trophy

Ice Dance:
Crone and Poirier (CAN) - Gold Medal at Skate Canada

Davis and White (USA) - Olympic Silver Medalists. Gold Medal at NHK Trophy

Shibutani and Shibutani (USA) - Bronze at NHK Trophy

Weaver and Poje (CAN) - Silver at NHK Trophy


I've posted my fantasy picks below...hoping for the best!

Beijing Bound

The Grand Prix continues this weekend in Beijing at the Samsung Anycall Cup of China. Stop #3 I believe gives us our deepest fields yet. Who should you keep your eye on?

In Ice Dance, the top two teams look to be Italians Faiella and Scali and the French team of Pechalat and Bourzat. The Italians got the better end of it last season with a top five finish at the Olympics and a Bronze at the World Championships. Both teams, however, are very experienced teams and the Grand Prix has shown us anything is possible in Ice Dance. On their heels are several team including the Russians of Bobrova and Soloviev who have made steady gains the last two season, the Hungarians Hoffman and Zavozin (Matthew Zavozin actually used to compete for the U.S.), and Americans Hubbell and Hubbell who begin their second season on the Senior Grand Prix. Medal Predictions: (GOLD) Faiella and Scali, (SILVER) Pechalat and Bourzat, (BRONZE) Bobrova and Soloviev

The men's competition could be very exciting. Brian Joubert of France gets his major competitive season underway in Beijing. The Frenchman is looking for redemption this season after a somewhat disappointing season that saw Olympic hopes dashed (again). He's revamped himself, taken on a North American choreographer, and seems mentally prepared. He'll be pushed by several competitors including Japan's Takahiko Kozuka, Italy's Samuel Contesti, Czech Republic's Tomas Verner, Russia's Sergei Voronov, and American Brandon Mroz. All of these men (except Contesti who is a European Championship medalist) have won a medal on the Grand Prix and could challenge for a medal here. Verner, Voronov, and Mroz in particular are looking to turn around very disappointing seasons last year and get things started on the right foot. Medal Predictions: (GOLD) Brian Joubert, (SILVER) Takahiko Kozuka, (BRONZE) Tomas Verner (Am I crazy...)

The Ladies event looks to be a fun three way fight between Japan's Miki Ando and Akiko Suzuki and American Mirai Nagasu. These three women kept criss-crossing each other in the standings last season and seem very evenly matched. Akiko was stunning at this event last season and burst onto the skating map with a big win. Ando had a solid Grand Prix season culminating in a silver at the Grand Prix Final. Nagasu, of course, had a solid U.S. Nationals and was fourth at the Olympics. Any of the three women could easily take the event with two solid performances. On their heels will be Russia's Alena Leonova who seemed to come unglued last year as the season progressed. She has shown competitive aptitude however and if she can get her head around landing jumps she'll be in good shape. I'm also interested to see how American Kristine Musademba does in her Senior Grand Prix debut, she was a successful Junior competitor. Medal Predictions: (GOLD) Miki Ando, (SILVER) Mirai Nagasu, (BRONZE) AKiko Suzuki

The Pairs field is interesting as you have one super veteran team going up against a slew of youngsters! The veterans (and of course favorites) are Pang and Tong of China. They skated to an easy win in Japan and I see no reason why they wouldn't do the same here at home...but they will be slightly more challenged. The top challenge coming from one of the young teams, their one teammates Sui and Han. This young team actually was just recently given credit for landing a throw quad salchow in competition and will attempt it in Beijing. They swept the Junior ranks last season and look to make a successful move to the Seniors. Skate Canada Champions Iliushechkina and Maisuradze have made the trip from Kingston to Beijing adding depth to the field. Cup of China will be our first look this season at American Silver Medalists Evora and Ladwig who had a breakthrough season last year and a second shot at the podium for Americans Yankowskas and Coughlin who barely missed the podium at NHK. Medal Predictions: (GOLD) Pang and Tong, (SILVER) Sui and Han, (BRONZE) Iliushechkina and Maisuradze

I'll be live Tweeting during (at the least) the men's and ladies short programs early tomorrow morning and during all the free skates and the free dance early Saturday morning. Also, don't expect tweets from the competitors in China as Twitter is blocked by the Chinese Government (sad face). On Fantasy Picks, I've posted my choices below. Oddly, Pang and Tong weren't listed in any category so you couldn't pick them...?

Skate Canada Fantasy Picks

So another Grand Prix event, more Fantasy Picks...here's what I've come up with:

Ladies

I think Ladies A was the hardest of all my decisions. I went with the veteran Fumie Suguri. Maybe this is the year veterans strike back with Carolina's win last week as evidence. Chose another veteran with Ladies B although Meier has rarely been on form this early in the season. Ladies C was a no brainer with the Junior World Silver Medalist...I actually think Agnes is my favorite for the win!

Dance

Dance A seemed an easy choice but Crone and Poirier could put up a fight and surprise at home. Chock and Zuerlein seemed the easy choice for B and Paul and Islam looked like the easy choice for C as the Junior World Silver Medalists. No brainers...

Pairs

Really watered down field...so much so that the choice for A is de facto. No idea who to pick for B so went with a Chinese Team...they'll likely land throws, right? Blind picked C and went with the energetic Americans...I've seen them skate well before!

Men

Watching Nobu land those quad triples with such easy on YouTube makes me think he's going to do well here...that was a tough choice between he and Chan but went with Nobunari. Alban skated so well at this event last season so picked him for B. Another dice roll as far as my C pick is concerned...Japan seems to be skating well so went with Nanri.

Thoughts? Skate Canada preview coming tomorrow.

UPDATE: News that Sarah Meier may have injured herself in practice made me nervous so a quick change of the fantasy picks...I've gone with Haruka Imai of Japan for Ladies B instead.

NHK Trophy Roundup

So about the 2010 installmenmt of the NHK Trophy...

What I Liked
NHK Trophy gave us a good peak at some of the young and up-and-coming talent from Japan. In the short program especially, Yuzuru Hanyu and Kanako Murakami came out like gang busters...very impressive. And while not perhaps their best performance, Takahashi and Tran did a nice job of putting Japan on the Pairs radar as far as seniors go. I loved some of the new programs out there including Daisuke Takahashi's short, Jeremy Abbott's short and free, Denney and Barrett's free, Shawn Sawyers, free, Yankowskas and Coughlin's free, Ilinykh and Katsalapov's free dance, and the Shibutani's free dance. I also loved that the Shibutani's nabbed a bronze medal in their Senior Grand Prix debut! While I'm not jumping for joy over the programs (yet), I love the class and sophistication Davis and White and Pang and Tong brought to their victories.

What I Didn't Like
I was not a fan of the short dances. One of the things I asked Ice-Dance.com on Twitter was what should we look for with these and one of the most important things was the transition between prescribed steps from the old compulsory dance to the original choreography. I felt like few of the teams managed this well. It seemed like there was a compulsory dance, and then there was a mini original dance, and all the teams were huffing and puffing around the rink trying to get all the requirements in on time. Only Davis and White I felt managed a smooth transition between the two types of 'ice dancing' required in the short dance. I also didn't like the result of the ladies competition. I think Rachael Flatt should have had an easy win here and yet she found herself second behind a watered down Carolina Kostner. I poured over the judges protocol and on the technical side, the judges were slightly more generous with positive grades on the things Carolina did well vs the positive grades for what Rachael did well. Carolina had 1's and 2's where Rachael had 0's and 1's. Also, a near seven point gap between Carolina and Rachael on the PCS scores seems ridiculous to me. I think in some areas (some!) Carolina may have a slight advantage...but overall I feel their skating is quite even on a component scale. I would love for a judge to sit down with me and explain point-by-point how Carolina is that much better. In general, I don't feel the judges were very forthcoming with scores for any of the American competitors.

What I Hated
First, watching Mao Asada have an utter meltdown! Nothing worked for her here, either in the short or free. And with an 8th place (yes 8th!) finish, a trip to the Grand Prix Final in Beijing is near impossible. I hated the ridiculous number of Tango's this season. Not just in dance, but in all the disciplines so many competitors have a Tango! The best Tweet during NHK Trophy was from @icedancecom! Only Daisuke Takahashi's Tango passes the Axels, Loops, and Spins overused music test and gets a pass. I even still have to warm-up to Davis and White's Forever Tango/Il Postino. The final thing I hated was the scoring amongst the top three in the mens competition. First I had a hard time with Amodio sneaking past Abbott in the free skate (even though he placed behind him overall). The sophistication of Abbott's program coupled with the fact he only had one major jump error led me to believe Abbott would sail past Amodio but not the case. To be fair it was the technical score that got Amodio past Abbott but still. I mean standing at center ice for 11 seconds doing Michael Jackson isn't exactly skating. On the flip side, Takahashi was scored nearly 7 points better than Abbott in the PCS score on his way to a win. No way is Takahashi 7 points better than Abbott in PCS...at best they are about dead even. Like the women, I want someone to sit down and explain how Daisuke is 7 points better...anyone? I'll get off my soapbox!

As for my fantasy picks...wamp wamp! I'm tied for 365th place. Get em' next time!

You can see the full results here. Next week, Skate Canada!

Fantasy Figure Skating Basics

Per request, here are the basics about how U.S. Figure Skatings Fantasy Figure Skating works. It's pretty simple

About the Game
There's 11 rounds, one for each Grand Prix Event, the Grand Prix Final, U.S. Nationals, Four Continents Cup, Europeans, and Worlds. For each event you'll manage a team of 8-12 skaters, chosen by you prior to each event. Skaters have been divided into two or three pools. Higher ranked skaters are in the A pool...lower ranked skaters in the B and C pools. You pick a skater from each pool in each discipline and that is your team. Below are my choices for the ladies at NHK. I chose Mao Asada for Pool A, Kanako Murakami for Pool B, and Diane Szmiett for Pool C.



Picking Your Team
The idea is to pick skaters you think will place the highest in the competition. You look at each group and predict who will finish the highest and choose them. This can be tricky as many skaters in each pool are evenly matched. For example, at NHK Trophy this week, Daisuke Takahashi and Jeremy Abbott are in Pool A...a tough choice. Make sure you pick your teams before the event begins. Once the event begins you cannot change or add skaters. Also, from time to time, a skater you may have picked withdraws from the competition. Make sure to check often to make sure your team is complete. Stay on top of skaters progress through the season. How they are skating may affect your choices later down the road...

Earning Points
You basically get as many points your skater earns in the competition. If, for example, Ross Miner earns 210.45 points at NHK, you get 210.45. Add up all the points for your entire team and that is your score for the competition. If a skater(s) on your team withdraws before or during the competition, they earn 0 points. You'll have a competition score, and a total score from all your events. If you don't have the highest score after one event, don't fret! There are 11 competitions for you to gain points! Remember the story about the Tortoise and the Hare...?

Prizes?
There will be competition winners and an overall winner. Competition winners (team that scored the highest points at a particular competition) will get a $25 credit to the U.S. Figure Skating Online Store. The overall winner (most total points at the end of the season) will get a $100 credit to the U.S. Figure Skating Online Store, $75 for second, $50 for third.

What are you waiting for...JUMP IN!!!

Any Questions? If so, ask away!

Fantasy Figure Skating

In an attempt to make myself be more vigilant about staying on top of my Fantasy Figure Skating account, I've decided to add it to my blogging repetoire. If I put my choices out there each week it will be areminder for me to do it. So here are my choices:

2010 NHK Trophy Event

Ladies:
A-Mao Asada, JPN / B-Kanako Murakami, JPN / C-Diane Szmiett, CAN

Men:
A-Jeremy Abbott, USA / B-Yuzuru Hanyu, JPN / C-Ross Miner, USA

Pairs:
A-Pang/Tong, CHN / B-Takahashi/Tran, JPN / C-Zhang/Wang, CHN

Ice Dancing:
A-Davis/White, USA / B-Weaver/Poje, CAN / C-Mysliveckova/Novak, CZE

Analysis: The women for me was pretty easy. Despite Mao Asada's troubles at the Japan Open, I have a hard time imagining her not winning. The person who I feel has the best chance of besting her is her teammate Murakami that's why I picked her as well. I picked Diane Szmiett because I like her style...one of those head vs. heart situations. The men was a complete toss-up between Jeremy and Daisuke but many have smartly pointed out he often isn't hot in the early season so I went with Abbott. Men's B was tough but I think the young Japanese up and comer will prevail here, but Ten, van der Perren, Amodio, and Sawyer could all surprise me I think...kind of crossed my fingers. I'm hoping Ross' natural performability makes my C choice a success. Pairs seemed pretty cut and dry...I'll be shocked if I don't get that one near dead on. The only wiggle I think is with my B choice, if Yankowskas and Coughlin are on they might sneak up. Dance was easy too except for B. I think it will be very close between the Canadians and the Russians.

Who did you pick?