XXI Olympic Winter Games Figure Skating Mens Preview

An extremely deep field of men will vie for the title of Olympic Champion in Vancouver. Who do I see as the top 12 contenders? There is:

Jeremy Abbott (USA) - Jeremy enters this event as the reigning U.S. National Champion, a title he successfully defended in Spokane. Every time he has competed this season he has looked stronger and stronger. The move from Colorado Springs to Detroit to train with Yuka Sato and Jason Dungjen is paying dividends. He has shown when he skates clean he is a force to be reckoned with. Not only does he have solid technical ability (including a quad which has looked rock solid in his free skate) but his component scores are always some of the best in the field. If he repeats what he did in Spokane, he might be the guy to beat.

Patrick Chan (CAN) - When he hits the ice the roar will be deafening! He enters these Olympics as one of Canada's top Gold Medal hopefuls and will have the support of the Canadian people. Like Abbott, he has a knack at grabbing top component scores but his technical ability has come into question recently as he has been working his way back from an injury early in the season. He also had a recent coaching shake-up with he and Don Laws parting on iffy terms. Patrick has reported that the quad will not be in his programs in Vancouver, nonetheless, he remains a threat for the top spot on the podium because of his artistic skill. Again, the home-crowd advantage can help or hurt; it will be interesting to see how Patrick handles the pressure.

Samuel Contesti (ITA) - While he hasn't had the season he had last year with a surprise European Silver Medal and a top 5 finish at Worlds, he continues to skate consistently and could be a dark-horse medal threat. He has crowd pleasing programs that will no doubt go down well in Vancouver and a new found consistency on triple jumps, but he lacks in the component score department. Still, if he skates clean, gets the crowd on his side, and others make mistakes he may find himself in the running for a medal. He has nothing to loose and everything to gain and that may be his biggest asset.

Brian Joubert (FRA) - He looked positively angry on the podium at the recent European Championships where he managed only the bronze medal. Since winning the world title in 2007 it seems like he can't catch a break. He lost Worlds in 2008 despite a clean skate with a quad. Dropped down to 3rd last year after some odd mistakes. He's had to pull out of two consecutive Grand Prix Finals. If all that wasn't enough, he had to deal with a foot injury in December. Oy! Still, he comes to Vancouver with one of the most consistent quads and loads of Olympic Experience. Hopefully, he learned some hard lessons from his failures in Torino that will serve him well in Vancouver. If he is as mad as looks about losing European's, he may come out in Vancouver swinging!

Takahiko Kozuka (JPN) - Part of arguably the strongest men's team (some might contend that Team USA is the strongest), Takahiko is one of several skaters that is easily capable of playing the role of spoiler at these Olympics. This season, however, hasn't been his best. He failed to qualify for the Grand Prix Final (an event that he took Silver in the prior year) and was just third at Japanese Nationals. Despite the recent downturn, his greatest strength is a lack of a weakness. He's solid technically as well as artistically. This season he's fiddled with putting the quad in his free skate, I think sensing he needs a little extra 'umph' to really be a medal threat. If he can complete that jump and skate well...watch out!

Stéphane Lambiel (SUI) - A member of club comeback, Stéphane enters the Olympics coming off a successful European Championships. While he only won the silver medal there, he debuted a well received free skate to music from the opera La Traviata. Lambiel's technical ability is suspect without a triple axel, but he is a brilliant artisan who can rake in the points in the component scores. He is also the most gifted spinner in the competition. He's proven himself to be a clutch competitor, often times pulling off great performances when the lights are on and the chips are down. Like many of the top competitors he has dealt with injury in the run-up to these Olympics. If he can get through the gauntlet of triple jumps, complete his quads, and charm the audience, I don't see how he isn't on the podium.

Evan Lysacek (USA) - The reigning World Champ has looked Olympic ready all season. The only time he looked vulnerable was at the recent National Championships in Spokane where a late decision to rearrange his free skate and add a quad led to some inconsistencies and just a Silver Medal. Nonetheless, he has stated over and over that his goal this season is Vancouver and it is there he wants to peak. Up until nationals he was simply cruising along with big wins at Cancer.Net Skate America as well as the Grand Prix Final. Many are touting Evan as the best chance the U.S. has at a Gold Medal and he is certainly garnering the most American media attention. If he can continue to be as steady as he has been most of the season, he'll give everyone a run for their money in Vancouver.

Evgeny Plushenko (RUS) - The 2006 Olympic Champ is looking for second helpings here in Vancouver and he is, for many if not most, the favorite to win Gold. He made his comeback at Rostelecom Cup with the confidence that only Plushenko can display. Many were unsure of how solid he would look after being away from competition for nearly four years and he waltzed back on the scene...with quad and arrogant #1 finger waves. He has been plagued with some slight difficulty with his knee but it didn't stop him from winning Russian Nationals and Europeans. Despite, in my opinion, having a one dimensional approach to choreography, the judges love him and if he manages a clean skate I can't imagine him not winning.

Nobunari Oda (JPN) - When Nobunari debuted his new free skate at Trophee Eric Bompard, I was impressed! Nobunari has found his stride this season with a beautiful Charlie Chaplin program that suits him brilliantly. He's one of only two skaters that have been successful at getting past World Champ Evan Lysacek; he did so at Samsung Anycall Cup of China. Even though he enters this competition as the #2 ranked man from Japan, I think he is a legitimate Gold Medal threat, especially if he attempts and lands the quad in his free skate. He missed making the Olympics in 2006 because of a scoring snafu at Japan's National Championships that ended up reversing the placement at the top and leaving him at home. This time, he gets to show the world what he's got.

Daisuke Takahashi (JPN) - He has had a roller coaster season to this point. A poor skate at home at NHK Trophy followed by a great skate at HomeSense Skate Canada. He then had another meltdown at the Grand Prix Final but rebounded with a great skate at Japanese Nationals. It's hard to predict where Takahashi will come out in Vancouver. The early season issues were attributed to his being off last season with a meniscus injury but stamina issues have continued to plague him. However, when he is in top form, he is hard to compete with. His program is also well suited to him and full of character and his footwork is some of the best in the world.

Tomas Verner (CZE) - I almost considered not including Tomas in this post and instead focus on his teammate Michal Brezina. Tomas started the season promising but it has been down hill ever since. After winning the Silver Medal at Trophee Eric Bompard, he was just 4th at Cancer.Net Skate America. Then he finished last at the Grand Prix Final, lost the Czech Championship to Brezina and finished a disappointing 10th at Europeans...a far cry from the win he was able to produce in 2008. It would be easy for anyone to write him off at this point but Tomas has an amazing resilience to adversity and an ability to put himself back together after disappointing performances. He's humpty-dumpty if you will. If he stays on his feet and rotates his jumps he has a shot at a medal, if he falters...he's toast.

Johnny Weir (USA) - He has already made the headlines and he hasn't even stepped on the ice. Johnny will take the ice with the distraction of having to deal with Friends of Animals, an animal protection group that slammed Weir for his use of real fox fur on his Free Skate outfit. He's decided to replace the fur with faux fur. In a statement he said:

I made this decision after several threats were sent to me about disrupting my performance in the Olympic Games and my costume designer, Stephanie Handler, was repeatedly sent messages of hate and disgust. I do not want something as silly as my costume disrupting my second Olympic experience and my chance at a medal, a dream I have had since I was a kid.

So far this season Johnny has been okay...not stellar. He barely made the Olympic Team with a 3rd place finish at U.S. Nationals. If he is going to be a medal threat in Vancouver he will have to up his game. He does have a flair for the dramatic so he may shock us all yet.

European Championships Preview (Men)

The oldest skating event on the books, the European Championships will be happening concurrently with U.S. Nationals. Like the men's field in Spokane, the men's field in Tallinn is equally impressive. An Olympic Champ, two Olympic medalists, three World Champions, three European Champions, two Junior World Champs, and too many national champions to mention will all battle to become Europe's best. As I see it, ten men (seriously...ten!) have a shot at taking this title (or at least medaling). Who are the ten I'm watching?

Kevin van der Perren - Poor KVDP has had a really rough go this season. At HomeSense Skate Canada he looked absolutely disgusted with figure skating. Hopefully a bit of break from competitive skating and the Olympics just around the corner can put him back on track. European's offer Kevin a chance to reintroduce himself as a serious contender prior to the Olympics. Kevin finished 5th at Rostelecom Cup and a devastating 11th at HomeSense Skate Canada.

Michal Brezina and Tomas Verner - Both of these Czech skaters have had quite different seasons thus far. Tomas, who was the 2008 Champ of this event, has struggled here and there this season. He made the Grand Prix Final (after Joubert withdrew with injury) only to finish last. Brezina, on the other hand, has made steady improvements and nearly made the Grand Prix Final himself. He went on to defeat Verner for the Czech National Title. Verner needs to turn his season around and Brezina needs to continue his upswing.

Brian Joubert, Yannick Ponsero, and Alban Preaubert - Team France is easily the strongest in the field. Europeans offers Joubert the chance to do two things: test his skating after coming off of mid season foot surgery and also test himself for the first time since Torino against both Lambiel and Plushenko. Joubert is without question one of the leading men heading towards Vancouver, a status he'll hope to keep coming out of this event. For Ponsero and Preaubert, this is likely the end of their season as neither is slated to compete in Vancouver or Torino (one may go to Torino but it's too early know). Both were bested by young upstart Florent Amodio at French Nationals and failed to gain an Olympic berth (Amodio isn't competing in Tallinn). Both, however, are solid competitors and may surprise here.

Samuel Contesti - Last season's surprise European silver medalist is hoping to continue his emergence into the top ranks of men's figure skating. He kept it together at last World's in L.A. to place in the top five and while not perfect has skated fairly consistently on the Grand Prix. He'll need to bump it up a notch to compete with the heavy hitters here in Tallinn. His programs are unique crowd pleasers but he'll need to hit all his jumps and improve his levels to make a run at the title.

Evgeny Plushenko and Sergei Voronov - Plushenko is no stranger to this event. Ten years removed from his first European Title (2000) he's going after win number six. He made his comeback at Rostelecom Cup earlier this season with great ease but has since struggled with some knee problems. Even still, he enters this event as the Russian National Champ and skating fairly well. One thing many people will be looking at is the score Plushenko receives for his programs. At Russian Nationals his (and teammate Voronov) scores were very (very!) inflated...it'll be interesting to see what his actual international scores look like and if that knee continues to hold up. Voronov is still looking to crack into the top echelon of European men, he's been knocking at the door for several seasons now.

Stéphane Lambiel - It's a complete mystery to me that he has never won the European Title. Like Plushenko, he has made a rather impressive comeback this season, albeit he was only gone for one season to Plushenko's three. Lambiel, as a result of Jamal Othman's dismal performance in L.A. hasn't been afforded the chance to really pit himself against any of the world's best skaters this season. This competition will be the first time to see how Lambiel fits into this complex mix of skaters. Lambiel has a knack at being seemingly unprepared but looking rather prepared when you least expect it. He's also a very organic skater that likes new challenges and competes well given those challenges. He's planning a new free skate, we may (or may not) see it in Tallinn (We will! La Traviata). I look at Lambiel as the wildcard here.

Interesting, the top three big names are all entering this event nursing some sort of injury. Joubert has his foot, Plushenko his knee, and Lambiel his hip. This may throw a wrench into things...then again it may not affect things at all.

Results Round-Up

As I discussed last week, this past weekend was a bit of a National's Marathon for a good deal of Europe. Here is some of the notable results and happenings...

Italy: Faiella and Scali won with Cappellini and Lanotte right behind. National scores tend to be inflated but Federica and Massimo's scores where right in there with the best in the world; about on par with what Belbin and Agosto have produced. Contesti skated to an easy victory. The big news is Carolina Kostner was unable to beat Valentina Marchei for the title. The plot thickens as Kostner's L.A. meltdown last season only provided one Olympic berth for Italy...??? Both ladies will be at European's...this might get scrappy!

Germany: Stefan Lindemann won as expected but he surprisingly had to come from behind to do it, third after the short he had to sweat it out against Peter Liebers. Both will compete at the European Championships. Savchenko and Szolkowy opted to not compete in Mannheim.

Sweden: Viktoria won the battle of the Helgesson's defeating Joshi. Kristoffer Berntsson bested Adrain Schulteiss in the men's division. That was hotly contested as Sweden only gets to send one guy to Vancouver. Both will be at the European Championships.

Czech Republic/Slovakia: Michal Brezina continued his breakout senior season with a win over Tomas Verner. Brezina bested Verner by just over 20 points.

Finland: The ladies competition unfolded as most predicted with Laura Lepisto slipping in for the win with Korpi behind in second. Pöykiö could only manage the bronze. All three women will compete at the European Championships.

France: Ice Dance newbies Carron and Jones won their first French National Title. However, neither reigning National Champs Pechalat and Bourzat or 2008 World Champs Delobel and Schoenfelder competed. Only two Olympic berths open for France in Ice Dance. James and Bonheur defeated Canac and Coia for the Pairs title. The French men continue to be wildly unpredictable this season. Joubert opted to not compete. Florent Amodio came out on top managing to get past Yannick Ponsero. Preaubert who looked great at Skate Canada only managed the bronze. Two Olympic berths open for the men and it's still up in the air who besides Joubert will get in? Some are reporting that Amodio gets the ticket to Vancouver. Did the French Federation make that decision before European's?

Dark Horse

We all know who the big names and medal contenders are for the Olympics next February in Vancouver.  But there are some dark horses lurking out there that I think we should keep an eye on who might surprise us.  That surprise may come in the form of an unexpectedly high placement at the Olympics…it might come with an Olympic Medal attached!
 
Amongst the pairs, I don’t think we should forget about the Canadian duo of Duhamel and Buntin.  This team is powerful, exciting, dynamic…they’re all those words Skate Canada wants its athletes using to describe themselves!  I don’t think anyone has them pegged for a podium finish but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens.  I think we should continue to keep an eye on the Ukrainian team of Volosozhar and Morozov.  At times, they have a quiet consistency that serves them well.  Finally, whichever one of the young Russian teams makes it to the Olympics should be watched as well.
 
Among the ladies, watch out for Kiira Korpi who I think one of these days is going to shock us all.  The fight for the Olympic Team in Japan is fierce, but should Akiko Suzuki make the team I think she would also have to be considered a dark horse?  The young Russian, Alena Leonova, who loves an audience and has more energy than she knows what to do with it could really make a splash too (set herself up nicely for Sochi in the process!).  Of course, it’s like a complete mystery who will be on the U.S. Olympic Team, some U.S. skaters may be considered dark horses while others may be considered favorites…
 
Dance is a little less ‘dark horsey’ because it’s quite clear who the contenders are.  I would caution, however, everyone to keep an eye on Kerr and Kerr of Great Britain, Faiella and Scali as well as Cappellini and Lanotte both of Italy and Crone and Poirier of Canada.  Also, watch out for Chock and Zuerlein of the U.S.  The U.S. Dance fight for the podium will be fierce this season too!
 
Do we consider Evgeny Plushenko and Stephane Lambiel dark horses or favorites…I’m not sure?  Definite dark horses include Denis Ten of Kazakhstan (if you didn’t see his World’s Free…well…you should!).  He’s musical; one of those skaters that just knows how to hit every note in his music and pulls in great component scores.  He’s been fiddling with the quad and if he can hit it with a solid program, watch out.  Yannick Ponsero of France is an unusual skater, unique (like most French skaters) style, and also proved last season that he could possibly contend with the ‘big boys.’  The breakout story of last season, Samuel Contesti of Italy, could be a force if he can reduplicate what he did last season.  I’m still waiting for Sergei Voronov of Russia to put it all together; when he does he’ll be dangerous.  Another Frenchmen, also unique, Florent Amodio has an outside shot at making the French Olympic Team and could be interesting to watch.  A few guys from Canada (only one of which will most likely make the Olympic Team) could surprise.  Kevin Reynolds with his quad jumps, Vaughn Chipeur with that huge Triple Axel, and Jeremy Ten with his incredible speed could all surprise us as well.
 
Who do you think we should keep an eye on?

2nd Annual Loop Axel Awards

Part Two...time for some of the more interesting awards. Lots of these are new awards that weren't amongst the ranks of awards last season. It's just so much fun to hand out awards (which is interesting since I'm 'really' not handing any awards out!). Categories include:

*Best Jump (NEW)
*Best New Face
*Hottest Skater
*Best Fall
*Best Coach
*Most Improved Skater (NEW)
*Best Outfit (NEW)
*The OMG Moment of the Season (NEW)
*Best Comeback (NEW)
*Blog of the Year (NEW)

*Best Jump award goes to Canadian Vaughn Chipeur for his Triple Axel in the short program at Cup of China that just took us all by surprise. If you've never seen his Axel...it's huge! Other great jumps that were taken into consideration include Evan Lysacek's Quad at the Four Continents Cup, Mao Asada's Triple Axel at the Grand Prix Final, and every jump Miki Ando attempted in the Free Skate at Worlds. ;-)

*Best New Face goes to Denney and Barrett. They really have been remarkable this season. Being a team for such a short period of time and in their two first international competitions, to put down clean free skates...impressive. It was the year of Ten as well, as I considered both Jeremy (the Canadian version) and Denis (the version from Kazakhstan) as well as Russian newbie Alena Leonova.

*Hottest Skater is always tricky for me. Like last year, I had to confer with others. I actually put together a panel of six individuals (close friends) and put 4 skaters in front of them. It was a tie so I broke the tie with my vote and named Aliona Savchenko the winner. She is a stunner, so much so, that at the Public Pairs Medal Ceremony in L.A. Peter Carruthers looked at her, stepped back, looked at her again and proclaims, "She's looking good, huh? Very L.A." Before my tie breaker, Keauna McLaughlin was right up there with her, but as she is only 16 it felt a little wierd. Also in the mix was Alexander Smirnov (last year's winner!) and Rockne Brubaker (although he had tamed the curls at Worlds...and that made me sad).

*Best Fall award absolutely goes to Candice Didier for that frightening fall she had on an easy triple toe in the free skate at Worlds. I thought no way can she comeback from that, not only did she, but earned a standing ovation for the heroics she displayed. Two other Worlds falls made the nominee list, Yuko Kavaguti's spill on her throw quad salchow and Jenna McCorkell's fall in the free skate. Also on the list, Emily Hughes for her crash and burn Triple Flip at Eric Bompard Trophy.

*Best Coach I decided to give to Nikolai Morozov. At almost any competition, he is the coach for like a third of the competitors...no joke. I always wonder how he has the time to teach so many but he must be doing something right as he has so many high level athletes. Almost gave it to the dup of Natalia Linichuk and Gennadi Karpanossov for getting both Domnina and Shabalin and Belbin and Agosto in such amazing shape for worlds with little prep time. Brian Orser made the list for his amazing work with Yu-Na Kim and recently Adam Rippon, and Tatiana Tarasova for her work with both Lysacek (she worked with him to perfect and work out his program a bit) and Asada.

*The Most Improved Award goes to Samuel Contesti who really put himself on the map this season with an unexpected Silver at Europeans and a really solid 5th place finish at Worlds. Previously (and as Frenchman) , not even close to being in the mix at major international competitions, suddenly he's a big time competitor! I considered Caroline Zhang for the remarkable progress she has made this season, Adam Rippon for the same, and Kavaguti and Smirnov for really beginning to gel as a team.

*The Best Outfit Award is highly subjective and I'm sure plenty will completely disagree with me but I went with Kerr and Kerr's Free Dance Outfit. There is a story behind the program, brother and sister that survive a natural disaster, and I think the costumes tell that story beautifully without being over the top. I was a big fan of Samuelson and Bates Original Dance Outfit, especially Evan in his Popeye bits. Although some thought it a bit 'nude' I liked Ashley Wagner's 'Spartacus' digs. I'm also a sucker for gloves, and loved Nobunari Oda's 'Warsaw Concerto' get-up.

*The OMG (Oh My God!) Moment of the Season for me was definitely when I was looking at the scoreboard inside Quicken Loans arena and said "Did Alissa Czisny just win National's?" I had several OMG moments this season, thus the award, including "Did Craig Buntin just slice his hand in half on Megan Duhamel's blade?" Also, "Did Patrick Chan just bitch-slap Brian Joubert in the L.A. Times over a Quad jump?" Don't forget, "Jeffrey Buttle just retired! Did he get the memo that the Olympics were in Canada next year?"

*Best Comeback award goes to Miki Ando for after a rocky season, getting it together to have a...well at the least...technically proficient skate at Worlds to claim the Bronze medal. Belbin and Agosto nearly got it for getting it together to fast and narrowly missing the World Title. Tomas Verner for finishing 4th this season at Worlds after the disaster and meltdown that was Goteborg, Sweden. And Alissa Czisny for almost keeping it together the entire season.

*The last award is a fun one. Our online skating community is growing and I'd like to take a little time to give some credit where I think some credit is due. I give the best figure skating blog award to myself...just kidding! Actually, after some long thought I really decided to give it to Lifeskate! Susan over there is a genius and I look at Lifeskate as more than a blog, but rather a resource for all things skating. She not only keeps tabs on competitive figure skating, but also professional skating, adult skating, synchronized skating, leisure skating, Ice Theatre, special events, basically everything. Her Journalism skills are crazy...she got interviews with Lu Chen and Denis Petrov...in Shenzhen, China! Exclusives with Nikolai Morozov, Johnny Weir, etc. etc. etc...Lifeskate...we are not worthy! If you have not bookmarked this site...who am I kidding...of course you already have it bookmarked!

That does it for the 2009 edition of the Loop Axel Awards.

If you missed part one...they're right here.

You can revisit the class of 2008 here.