A Tale of Two Nationals

Two big national championships took place this past week(end). Japan and Russia put their best foot forward and named national champions, solidified Olympic Teams, and gave us a few (very few) dramatic pauses.

Before the competition most had predicted that it would be smooth sailing for Kozuka, Oda, and Takahashi to make the Japanese Olympic Team but what wasn't so sure was how the three would place coming out of Nationals. Most assumed that Kozuka would get the bronze with the real fight being between Oda and Takahashi. Kozuka surprised all by sneaking into second place after Oda fell on a triple flip in the short. But in the free the world righted itself, with Kozuka slipping back to third and Oda and Takahashi going against each other. In the end Takahashi held on to win with clever choreography and some pretty spectacular (and some not so spectacular) jumping. All three men are Vancouver-bound.

4666 Miles Away in St. Petersburg Russia, the Russian ladies were a hot mess on the ice. Russian upstart, Alena Leonova who was the easy favorite to win this championship, faltered...repeatedly...and found herself hanging on to a silver medal. She almost fell to the bronze after Elizaveta Tuktamisheva won the free skate from 10th place and pulled all the way up to the bronze. The overall winner, Ksenya Makarova, was only third best in the free. Makarova recently placed fourth at the Junior Grand Prix Final in Tokyo.

The men's competition in St. Petersburg was a bit of a spectacle. Evgeny Plushenko, despite a flawed short program, scored a whopping 100.09 points. Everyone is quick to point out that scores at a national championships are inflated. But there is point inflation...and there is ridiculous...I file that score under ridiculous. Plushenko breezed his way to an easy victory with another flawed performance that earned a large score. The actual fight here was between Artem Borodulin and Sergei Voronov. Voronov had a flawed free skate and was beaten by Borodulin but managed to hang on to the silver. Voronov, too, had a huge score from the short program. I'd file that one under...excessive.

Also sealing up victories in St. Petersburg were Domnina and Shabalin who finally had a chance to show off their new programs. They were quite sloppy, understandably after being out of competition up until this point, but also pulled in a big ole score. I filed that one under...exaggerated. I'm a big fan of their Aboriginal OD though...it's fun. Bobrova and Soloviev were second, Rubleva and Shefer third. Khoklova and Novitski withdrew prior to the event. Kavaguti and Smirnov won another Russian Title. Mukhortova and Trankov were second with Bazarova and Larionov placing third.

Back in Osaka, I should note that Cathy and Chris Reed along with Takahashi and Tran won the Ice Dance and Pairs competition respectively.

The biggest of all the showdowns was the Japanese ladies competition which has been a bit of a cliff hanger to this point as to whom would make the Japanese Olympic Team along with Miki Ando (who secured a berth following her silver medal Grand Prix Final performance). Oddly, Ando finished fourth, off the podium at Japanese Nationals only adding to the intrigue of the Olympic selection. Securing the first spot was Mao Asada who breezed her way to an easy victory in the deep field. Triple axels in both the short program and the free skate put her well ahead of the field. Yukari Nakano and Akiko Suzuki were left to fight it out for the last spot. Yukari turned in a conservative free skate hoping to use her short program advantage over Akiko but Akiko turned up the heat and turned in another solid performance to surge ahead of Nakano for the silver, and earn a ticket to Vancouver.

The next big national showdowns come next month with Canada and the United States stepping up to the plate.

Showdown in Osaka

My title sounds like a Quentin Tarantino movie!

So this week brings about one of the most highly anticipated National Championships of the season. Of course I'm talking about Japanese Nationals.

I predict that Reed and Reed will win the Ice Dance competition and Takahashi and Tran will win the Pairs competition. But that's the easy part...

What isn't easy to predict is arguably the deepest singles fields in the world. A Clash of Titans, if you will, are set to do battle in Osaka. Here's who to look out for:

Fumie Suguri - She hasn't had the best season this far but she is a veteran and she's won this event before. Also, aside from Ando, she's the only other competitor in the field that has Olympic experience. It's worth noting that she has a track record of skating very well at the Olympics; 5th in Salt Lake City and 4th in Torino. I think to make the Olympic Team she'll assuredly HAVE to win and even then she may yet have to prove herself at the Four Continents Cup. Don't count her out...her experience may serve her well.

Yukari Nakano - She's kind of been the ugly step child of Japanese women's skating (figuratively...not literally). She tends to be consistent enough to always place decently in competition but never seems to breakthrough and be the shining star (except at the 2008 Worlds where I feel she was positively robbed!). Her jump technique gets her in trouble often. Last season at this competition she won the short program only to fall apart in the free. Like Suguri, I think a win is a MUST in order to even be considered for the Olympic Team.

Akiko Suzuki - She's been the surprise this season. A win in Beijing put her on the map. She squeaked into the Grand Prix Final and then did it again with a show stopping performance at the Grand Prix Final landing her on the podium there with the bronze medal. She's proven this season she can be a contender but we are all still wondering if she can keep this up? She seems to be the sentimental favorite this season and most people are pulling for her. I think if she hits the podium at Japanese Nationals she will have made a strong case for herself.

Mao Asada - The other surprise this season...but unfortunately the exact opposite of Suzuki. By her standards, a disastrous finish in Moscow coupled with a failure to make the Grand Prix Final all have us scratching our heads. She's had an extended period of time to train and get her head together. I have a sneaky suspicion she's is going to come out like gang-buster's at National's and be back on form. If she falters, however, her disastrous season may continue. She needs to prove that this fall was a fluke and it's all behind her.

Miki Ando - She doesn't have the Olympic pressure the other ladies have as she already has a guaranteed ticket to Vancouver but she does have the pressure of expectation as the top Japanese woman this season. Miki, I think mostly for herself, needs to win this competition to bolster her self confidence in being the top Japanese woman this season. If she gets beat here, especially a bad beat, it might crumble her confidence and we could see a Torino repeat where she went to pieces. She has the goods...she's a World Champion, she was very close to Kim at the Grand Prix Final, she beat Asada at the World Championships to make the podium. She needs to own this and I think the sky is the limit...a failure could prove costly.

The men seem less dramatic with most believing that Kozuka, Oda, and Takahashi will assuredly make up the Olympic Team. But the order of their finish at Nationals seems up for grabs...

Nobunari Oda - He needs to just keep doing what he's been doing. His program is charming and it works. If he manages to get that tricky 3-jump Quad Combo in and skates clean, I get the feeling he wins. If he struggles at all, the others will have an opportunity to capitalize.

Takahiko Kozuka - He hasn't had the season like he had last year but he's still a threat. He has those solid basics that make him formidabble. "A skater's skater" as Scott Hamilton would say. Quad has eluded him to this point but he often gives it a valiant try. If he can just stay steady and consistent he'll be just fine. I love his music choice this season, it's one of the most imaginative and original picks.

Daisuke Takahashi - Hot and cold this season. He was cold at NHK Trophy, hot at Skate Canada, and both at the Grand Prix Final (won the short...lost the free). Stamina would appear to be an issue this season. Coming back from an entire season off due to injury can't be easy and the rust has shown. But, he is one of the most gifted skaters on the scene and has every ability to lay down stunning performances. If his conditioning is good I believe Takahashi is the one to beat. May come down to the quad...if he hits it he's in good shape. Missing it could be the deal breaker.

I'm not as up on the Japanese 'B-Listers' but I'm sure, as with any national championship, there is the opportunity for a spoiler or two.

Junior Grand Prix: Poland

This past weekend the Junior Grand Prix concluded in Toruń, Poland. It was a VERY good weekend for Japan!

In Pairs, Takahashi and Tran of Japan bettered their bronze from last week in Lake Placid to take the title in Poland in a close final. Less than one point behind in second were Russians Novik and Kuznetsov with Canadians Jones and Gaskell pulling up to place third. Americans Zhang and Toth improved on their seventh place short program with a top four free skate and finished sixth overall.

In Ice Dance, Russians Ilinykh and Katsalapov won big. They won all three portions of the competition on their way to an easy victory. Their teammates, Antipova and Kudashev were second overall, despite finishing third in the free skate behind Americans Cannuscio and Lorello who took the bronze. Important to note Japan had no entries in Ice Dance.

Amongst the women, Japan also did well with Kanako Murakami taking the title easily. In second was Russian Anna Ovcharova and winning the bronze was American Christina Gao in her Junior Grand Prix debut. American Karen Zhou finished fifth.

Once again, Japan enjoyed success with Yuzuru Hanyu winning the gold medal by more than twenty points. In second was American Kanallakan who held on to second after a rough free skate that was ranked only fifth best. The bronze medal went to Russian Gordei Gorshkov who held off the challenge by teammate Alexander Nikolaev who actually placed second in the free skate. American Keegan Messing pulled all the way up to sixth from eleventh after a top three free skate.

Every Japanese entry in this event won! Full results can be seen here.

No Junior Grand Prix this weekend but the competition picks back up next week in Minsk, Belarus.

UPDATE: Big thanks to @patinaggio on Twitter for posting a link to the video of Yuzuru Hanyu's very elegant performance. My favorite highlight is the Ina Bauer he does.

Yuzuru Hanyu ISU JGP Toruń 2009 free programme
by shah85